Friar Notes: First-Round Pick Head Perfect Example of Padres’ Draft Strategy and Tactics

By Bill Center

Long before he was the Padres general manager, A.J. Preller developed the gift of being able to spot young talent.

Then he was able to spot people who could spot talent.

The Padres’ organizational scouting expertise led the Padres to being named the best minor league system for two straight seasons before tumbling all the way to third. The Padres mined both the draft and the international market for prime talent.

And Preller used much of that talent to make trades for players who helped the Padres reach the playoffs in both 2020 and 2022.

Success on the field, however, has repercussions come draft day.

The Padres’ success in 2020 dropped them to the №27 slot in the first round of the 2021 draft. The result: Shortstop Jackson Merrill, who is now ranked the Padres’ №1 prospect and №10 among all minor league prospects by the MLB Pipeline.

And this year, the penalty the Padres paid for reaching the National League Championship Series was the №25 slot in the first round of the draft. The Padres’ pick: center fielder Dillon Head, out of Homewood-Flossmoor High School in Illinois.

There are no guarantees with any draft pick. No one can look into the future with 100 percent success.

But if history holds, Head is a player to watch. Preller and his scouting crew have a track record. They also seem to have a knack.

A six-foot, 180-pound 18-year-old, Head is said to have plus-plus speed with excellent skills and instincts in the outfield and strong, left-handed bat-to-ball skills. As a senior in high school, Head hit .485 with a .568 on-base percentage and a .814 slugging percentage for a 1.382 OPS.

Head hit six homers with 25 RBIs and 15 walks. But the statistics that stood out were Head’s 31 stolen bases in 31 attempts and his total of five strikeouts in 118 plate appearances. Power? The Padres believe it will come with age and a conditioning program.

But here’s my bottom line stat. Head was rated the №27 prospect on MLB.com’s draft board. Baseball America tabbed Head as the 34th-best player on the board. But the Padres, according to Chris Kemp, the leader of both the Padres’ amateur and international scouting, said the Padres had Head “among the top №15” on their list.

The difference in the positioning?

Well, when it comes to position players, Preller’s team has always been partial to athletic players up the middle — center fielders, shortstops, second basemen and catchers.

Four of the Padres’ last five first-round picks were either shortstops or center fielders — shortstop CJ Abrams (2019), center fielder Robert Hassell III (2020), Merrill (2021) and Head (2023). The Padres selected right-handed starting pitcher Dylan Lesko with their first pick of the 2022 draft.

And as Preller’s mentor and close friend, the late Don Welke, once explained: “You don’t judge a player on what he’s doing now, you project what he can become. Look at the background, the mental strengths as well as the physical … where does he see himself.”

I thought of Welke’s words as a listened to a tape of Head’s post-draft ZOOM call with Padres’ media. He praised and thanked his family. This is not unusual. But there was a ring of gratefulness in Head’s voice. He shared the excitement of the moment with others in the room.

Then, when he talked about his skills, Head not only expressed confidence, he talked about how his “all-around game contributes to a team.”

God speed Dillon. But let’s move on, because no draft is limited to one round. And one of the Padres’ strengths over the Preller years is uncovering Major League talent in the later rounds.

“Our group is always really prepared,” said Preller. “We’ve done our homework on both the players and draft strategies. There are good players out there and we challenge our group all the time to go find them. Find value and talent throughout the draft … guys who can impact the game.”

The Padres lost their second- and fifth-round picks in this year’s draft as the penalty for signing free agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts last winter.

But yesterday’s seven picks stuck with the Padres’ up-the-middle theme — one catcher (Jandaniel Gonzalez, third round), two middle infielders (Jay Beshears in the sixth round and Nik McClaughry in the 10th) and two more center fielders (Homer Bush Jr. in the fourth round and Ryan Wilson in the ninth).

The Padres also took a right-handed pitcher/center fielder (Tucker Musgrove) in the seventh round and right-handed pitcher Kannon Kemp in the eighth round.

Although the Padres dipped deep into their prospect pool last August to acquire Juan Soto, Preller thinks the farm system is again strong in talent.

“Every day we feel like there is excitement from top to bottom in the system,” said Peller. “The system is progressing pretty nicely.”